NFL Week 9 expert picks, odds for Chiefs-Dolphins, Eagles-Cowboys and every other game (2024)

By Adam Gretz and Mark Ross

Nov 2, 2023

Read the latest edition of The Athletic’s NFL expert picks.

The Week 9 NFL schedule is looking like a monster week. It is full of prime matchups, featuring several potential playoff previews.

The fun starts early Sunday morning when the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs kickoff from Frankfurt, Germany at 9:30 a.m. ET. It is a chance for Miami to make a big statement after the Dolphins have struggled against some of the NFL’s top teams. Miami feasted on an early season schedule that featured a lot of non-contenders and non-playoff teams, but has been soundly beaten by the two potential playoff teams (Buffalo and Philadelphia) that it has played. A similar showing against Kansas City might start to raise some red flags. The Chiefs are a narrow favorite in the neutral site game.

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The other big matchups this week will feature the Dallas Cowboys visiting the Philadelphia Eagles in a huge NFC East matchup (Eagles favored by a field goal), the Buffalo Bills visiting the Cincinnati Bengals (Bengals also a narrow favorite) and the Seattle Seahawks going on the road against the Baltimore Ravens (Ravens are almost a touchdown favorite).

Two spreads this week are bigger than a touchdown: The Cleveland Browns against an Arizona Cardinals team that is likely to give Clayton Tune his first NFL start and the New Orleans Saints against Tyson Bagent and the Chicago Bears.

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (Thursday)

Notes and fun facts

Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett is a game-time decision after a rib injury forced him to miss the second half of Sunday’s game. Mitchell Trubisky is the Steelers’ backup.
The Steelers are on a run of 55 consecutive games without generating more than 400 yards of offense. That is tied for the second-longest streak in NFL history with the 2006-10 San Francisco 49ers.
Neither team is lighting up the scoreboard this season ranking 23rd (Titans) and 29th (Steelers) in the league in points per game. As such, the over/under for Thursday’s game is the lowest mark of Week 9. Only one of the seven Steelers’ games this season has reached the over. Only two of the Titans games have done so.
Will Levis came into the NFL with a reputation for having a big arm, and he showed that in his NFL debut. Not only did he throw four touchdown passes in a win over the Atlanta Falcons, three of them were among the top-10 touchdown passes this season in terms of air-yards. The Steelers will be without starting safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (hamstring).
The Steelers might be without Fitzpatrick, but defensive lineman Cam Heyward could return. The Steelers’ run defense struggled in his absence, giving up an average of 137.1 yards per game this season on the ground. That ranks 27th in the NFL. The Titans are averaging more than 115 yards per game on the ground.

How to Watch

8:15 p.m. on Amazon Prime

Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs in Germany

Notes and fun facts

Patrick Mahomes has lost back-to-back games just three times in his five-plus seasons as a starter (70-18 career record). The most recent occasion was Weeks 2 and 3 of the 2021 season.
Mahomes also is coming off the second-lowest passer rating of his career, after completing 24 of 38 passes for 241 yards and two interceptions while playing with flu-like symptoms (and getting his hand banged up) in the 21-9 road loss to the Broncos.
This will be wide receiver Tyreek Hill’s first game against his former team. Hill leads the NFL with 1,014 receiving yards. Hill’s total is just three yards shy of the combined output of the Chiefs’ top four wideouts – Rashee Rice, Justin Watson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore – and he has as many touchdown catches (eight) as this quartet.
Pass protection has been a key to the Dolphins’ success this season. Tua Tagovailoa has been sacked 11 times. Seven of those came in losses to Buffalo and Philadelphia. Kansas City is tied for second with 28 sacks.
The Chiefs’ nine points last Sunday were the team’s fewest since scoring only three in a Week 7 road loss to the Tennessee Titans during the 2021 season. Miami leads the league at 33.9 points per game and has been held under 20 just once (31-17 loss to Philadelphia in Week 7).

How to Watch

9:30 a.m. on NFL Network

Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons

Notes and fun facts

It is really hard to get a sense of how the Vikings will fare without starting quarterback Kirk Cousins because since joining the team in the 2018 season he has only missed two games, and one of them was a meaningless Week 16 game in the 2019 season when Cousins was being rested.
The Falcons own a 1-4 record against the spread coming into this game as a favorite. Conversely, the Vikings have been terrible as underdogs with a 2-8-1 record in its past 11 games.
Rookie quarterback Jaren Hall will have his hands full in his first NFL start going up against a Falcons defense that ranks sixth in the NFL in yards against per game and eighth against the pass. The Falcons’ defense going against a rookie quarterback, combined with the struggles of the Falcons’ offense, has understandably left this game with a low over of only 37.5 points. Only one Vikings game has reached the over this season.
Rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison has taken a huge step forward for the Vikings over the past two weeks in the absence of Justin Jefferson, totaling 14 catches (on 18 targets) for 205 yards and three touchdowns.

How to Watch

1 p.m. on FOX

Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens

Notes and fun facts

The Seahawks acquired DL Leonard Williams from the Giants prior to Tuesday’s trade deadline. Williams, the sixth overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, has 39.5 career sacks in nine seasons, including 1.5 this year.
Following last Sunday’s win over Arizona, Lamar Jackson is now 17-1 in his career as a starter vs. NFC teams (H/T to Jeff Zrebiec). In those games, Jackson has 36 total touchdowns (28 passing, eight rushing) while throwing just seven interceptions (also lost six fumbles).
From Mike Sando: Last season’s trade for Roquan Smith has transformed the Ravens’ defense. Since Week 10 of the 2022 season (17 games), Baltimore ranks first in the NFL in points per game allowed and defensive EPA per play. The Ravens also are 11-6 during this span.
It’s always interesting to see how West Coast-based teams fare when they play on the other side of the country. In Seattle’s case, the Seahawks have performed better statistically on both sides of the ball (especially on defense) away from Lumen Field. They are 2-1 in road games, including a Week 2 win over the Lions.

How to Watch

1 p.m. on CBS

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints

Notes and fun facts

Earlier this week, the Bears acquired Commanders DE Montez Sweat. A 2019 first-round pick (No. 26 overall), Sweat is in the last year of his rookie contract. He’s tied for eighth in the league with 6.5 sacks and should provide an immediate boost to a Chicago pass rush that ranks last in that category with 10.
Tyson Bagent will make his third straight start in place of an injured Justin Fields. Bagent is completing 70 percent of his passes (compared to Fields’ 61.7), but he has thrown just one touchdown pass to go along with three interceptions.
New Orleans put up 511 yards of total offense in last week’s win at Indianapolis. That’s the fourth-highest output this season and the most yards for any team other than Miami.
Saints WR Rashid Shaheed reached 21.1 MPH on his 58-yard touchdown catch last week against Indianapolis. The speedster also was clocked at 21.4 MPH on a 76-yard punt return for a touchdown in Week 3.
This game may lack a steady flow. These are two of the most penalized teams in the NFL with New Orleans tied for third in the department (54) and Chicago just behind in a tie for eighth (52).

How to Watch

1 p.m. on CBS

Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns

Notes and fun facts

It was only a couple of weeks ago that the Browns defense was being praised for its historically dominant performance. But over the past four weeks that defense has allowed 107 points, including 38 to a Gardner Minshew-led offense in Indianapolis. The yardage totals against are still strong for the season, but there have been some flaws starting to show.
It’s unlikely that Deshaun Watson (shoulder) will play for the Browns in this game.
One of the reasons for the increase in points against is the Browns offense is not doing the defense any favors in terms of protecting the football and putting them into a good position. The Browns have already turned the ball over 17 times (leading the league) in just seven games this season. It has been a problem no matter who the quarterback has been as the trio of Deshaun Watson, P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson have combined to throw 11 interceptions.
Cardinals rookie Clayton Tune will start for Arizona after they traded starter Joshua Dobbs to the Vikings earlier this week. Kyler Murray is nearing a return after tearing his ACL late last season, but it seems the Cardinals do not want to return Murray against the tough Browns defense.
The Browns own a 5-0 record against the spread in their past five games following a loss. Everything is set up for a strong showing this week as they get a West Coast team coming east for a 1 p.m. start time, while the Cardinals are already one of the league’s worst teams.

How to Watch

1 p.m. on CBS

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans

Notes and fun facts

This is a great game to take the under. Both defenses are in the top 10 in points against. Both offenses are ranked 20th or lower in points scored. Together, they are a combined 3-11 when it comes to hitting the over this season.
Both teams are among the best in the NFL when it comes to the turnover game. They are both in the top-four when it comes to protecting the ball (Houston’s four giveaways are fewest in the league, while Tampa Bay’s six are tied for the second-fewest). They also both in the top seven when it comes to turnover differential with the Buccaneers’ plus-eight mark being the best in the league.
The Buccaneers enter Week 9 on a three-game losing streak thanks largely to an offense that has become non-existent. They have scored just 37 points over the past three games since their bye week. It is not going to get much easier this week against an aggressive Texans defense that is sixth in the NFL in points allowed.
C.J. Stroud has only thrown one interception in his first 237 pass attempts. His 0.4 percent interception rate is the lowest in the NFL.

How to Watch

1 p.m. on CBS

Washington Commanders at New England Patriots

Notes and fun facts

For all of the Commanders’ problems this season, they have been very good as road underdogs, going 3-0 against the spread.
It is shocking that for as bad as the Patriots’ offense was last season under Matt Patricia, who was clearly in over his head as an offensive coordinator, that they have somehow managed to get worse across the board this season. Their 14.8 points per game are 31st in the NFL, ahead of only the New York Giants.
If there was ever a week for the Patriots offense to do something, this would be it. Not only do the Commanders allow the second most points in the league (28.5 per game) their lineup took a big hit at the trade deadline by dealing away Montez Sweat and Chase Young. If the Patriots can not generate offense this week, it is probably not going to happen this season.
The Commanders have a significant quarterback edge this week. Not only because New England’s Mac Jones has been awful, but because Sam Howell has shown significant improvement as the season continues. He has recorded a passer rating of 98.0 or higher in five of his past six starts, a stretch that has seen him throw seven touchdowns to three interceptions.

How to Watch

1 p.m. on FOX

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers

Notes and fun facts

Matthew Stafford’s thumb injury has his status up in the air. Backup Brett Rypien has made three starts in his four-year NFL career, the most recent coming in Week 14 of the 2022 season when he was with Denver.
Cooper Kupp’s 21 receiving yards (on four catches) last week were the fewest for him in a game he finished since posting 11 in Week 6 of the 2020 season. In between these two atypical performances (span of 40 games), Kupp has posted 20 100-yard efforts.
Slow starts have been dooming the Packers. They have just two touchdowns in the first half this season and have been outscored 56-9 leading into halftime during their current four-game losing streak.
Jordan Love, who currently ranks 28th in passer rating (78.2), described his most recent performance as “pretty average.” To make matters worse, the young quarterback isn’t getting much help from his pass catchers. Packers coach Mike LaFleur estimated six dropped passes in last week’s home loss to the Vikings, according to The Athletic’s Matt Schneidman.

How to Watch

1 p.m. on FOX

Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers

Notes and fun facts

It may not have been pretty, but quarterback Bryce Young finally got his first win. The No. 1 overall pick was sacked six times and had just one touchdown pass but he didn’t turn the ball over while posting season highs in both passer rating (103.6) and yards per pass attempt (7.6) in the 15-13 last-second victory over Houston. It also was offensive coordinator Thomas Brown’s first game calling plays.
Indianapolis is the only team to score more than 20 points in every game this season.
Fantasy nugget: The Panthers have given up the most rushing touchdowns and the second-most rushing yards to RBs this season.
This will be Carolina coach Frank Reich’s first game against his former team. He went 40-33-1 in Indianapolis from 2018-2022.

How to Watch

4:05 p.m. on CBS

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

Notes and fun facts

Jalen Hurts has at least 300 total yards and two touchdowns (passing and rushing) in six straight games. He’s only done that once in three career starts against Dallas (1-2 record).
Fantasy players are putting out an APB for Tony Pollard. The Cowboys’ running back has 159 rushing yards in his last four games after posting 122 on the ground in Week 3, and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1.
A.J. Brown is the first player in league history with at least 125 receiving yards in six consecutive games, according to NFL Communications. The most receiving yards Dallas has given up to a player thus far are 86 to Arizona’s WR Michael Wilson in Week 3.
Cowboys cornerback DaRon Bland recorded his third pick-six of the season last week.

How to Watch

4:25 p.m. on FOX

New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders

Notes and fun facts

The Raiders fired coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler on Tuesday night. Former NFL linebacker Antonio Pierce has been named the interim head coach.
Las Vegas is also making a change at quarterback. Jimmy Garoppolo is benched for rookie Aidan O’Connell, who started one game earlier this season – a 24-17 loss to the Chargers.
If you like good offense and exciting football, this is probably not your game. This might set football back 50 years. The Raiders and Giants enter Sunday with two of the three worst-scoring offenses in football. The Raiders’ 15.8 points per game is 30th while the Giants 11.9 is last in the NFL.
Given their struggles offensively, neither team has been much of a threat to hit the over this season. The Giants are 1-7 in terms of hitting the over, while the Raiders are 2-6.
Quarterback Daniel Jones looks set to return to the starting lineup this week. Jones has not exactly filled anybody with confidence this season as he is having the worst offensive season of his career through five starts.

How to Watch

4:25 p.m. on FOX

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals

Notes and fun facts

Whatever concerns you might have had about Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow early in the season can be safely put to rest. During the Bengals’ three-game winning streak, he has thrown eight touchdowns to only two interceptions while posting a 111.8 passer rating.
You never know when you are catching the Bills offense at the right time or the wrong time, because they are the most hot-and-cold team in the league. When they are at their best, they look unbeatable. When they are not, they look terrible. Josh Allen has four games this season with a passer rating over 100, while he has three games with a passer rating under 87. He has also been intercepted in six of his eight starts.
It is sure to be an emotional game for Buffalo and defensive back Damar Hamlin as they will be making their first return to Cincinnati since his medical emergency on the field in January. Hamlin has appeared in one game this season for the Bills.
The Bills are 0-4 against the spread in their past four games, while the Bengals are 13-4 in their past 17 games against the spread as a favorite.

How to Watch

8:20 p.m. on NBC

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets (Monday)

Notes and fun facts

Don’t look now but the J-E-T-S have won three in a row. Jacksonville (five straight) is the only team in the league with a longer winning streak.
New York is winning despite its offense. Zach Wilson has been sacked at least four times in the past three games, and the team is dead last in the NFL in first downs (102).
The offense may not be ready for prime time, but that’s where the Jets will find themselves these next two games. For Week 10, it’s Sunday Night Football in Las Vegas against the Raiders. The Jets are 1-1 in prime time thus far.
Austin Ekeler getting back on track is a good sign for the Chargers. His 123 yards from scrimmage in Sunday night’s win over Chicago was the first time he had eclipsed the century mark since Week 1.

How to Watch

8:15 p.m. on ABC/ESPN

(Photo of Tyreek Hill: Rich Storry / Getty Images)